It’s hard to envision the Irish having a worse World Cup than they had in 2007, when they entered the tournament with more hope than any Irish team had previously. It was felt that the ‘golden generation’ was ready to leave its mark. It didn’t turn out that way and, four years on, with a better mix of youth and experience and the Grand Slam monkey of their backs, this is an Irish team more comfortable in their own skin than those coached by Eddie O’Sullivan. Whilst the warm matches have seen insipid performances thus far, the team taking the field against the USA in their opening game will be much different. With a morale boosting Heineken Cup to Leinster this season and Munster dominating the Magners League, there should be considerable momentum to take to New Zealand.
Forwards
The Irish front row has been much maligned down the years and it has been a consistent struggle to replace the erstwhile John Hayes on the tighthead. However, the performances of Mike Ross for Leinster (not least in fixing his problems in the Heineken Cup final so dramatically) have finally given the Irish a cornerstone in their front row. The irrepressible Cian Healy has continued to improve his scrummaging to add to his rampaging loose work. Scratch the surface, however, and things aren’t quite so bright. Tony Buckley has flattered to deceive and for such an imposing physical specimen looks soft at srum time. Tom Court has equally struggled at the highest level in the tight. The inability of anyone to take advantage of Jerry Flannery’s prolonged injury absence highlights the issues at hooker. Perhaps the memory of Keith Wood looms too large. Rory Best is the incumbent but has struggled at times with his set piece, whilst Sean Cronin offers rare dynamism in the loose but is far too erratic in the tight. It’s difficult to look passed Paul O’Connell and Donncha O’Callaghan in the second row, although doubts remain about the former’s fitness and the latter is starting to look aged. Both players have revelled down the years in doing the unseen dirty work that allows the talent out wide to prosper, but can they dominate? Whilst it looks like Donnacha Ryan and Leo Cullen will battle it out for the bench spot, the one who would add some more dynamism at lock would be Dan Tuohy. An opportunity missed, I fear. The backrow oozes class and competition will be healthy throughout the tournament. The doubts surrounding the fitness of Stephen Ferris are a real concern as he provides the perfect foil for the other members of the breakaway trio. Jamie Heaslip has quickly become a world class operator at 8 and there’s the ‘small’ matter of one of the form players in the world at the moment – Sean O’Brien. His power on the carry coupled with his breakdown work and hard hitting were critical to Leinster winning the Heineken Cup. His combination with Heaslip should provide plenty of ‘go forward’ for the Irish backs to use. Throw in decent back up in Donnacha Ryan and Shane Jennings and the pack looks highly competitive. The cruel injury suffered to David Wallace will make getting the balance in the back row a headache for Declan Kidney.
Backs
The ongoing debate at both 9 and 10 provides the squad with great depth in key decision making positions. However, without the chance to settle into the position to the extent that O’Gara did during the 2000s. Tomas O’Leary has struggled with injuries and has been left at home, whilst Eoin Reddan had a strong finish to the season lifting his second Heineken Cup. His slicker service and acceleration off the mark should provide ample ammunition to the outside backs. Isaac Boss provides a more defensive option, whilst Connor Murray is a huge talent but his temperament could come under pressure. The debate surrounding the 10 shirt has been even louder, with Jonathan Sexton getting the nod during the 6 Nations. His performances towards the end of the domestic season should see the spot retained, although the calming influence of O’Gara will likely be needed in the high intensity games. Expect him to play a major role against Australia in the pool. In the centre, Brian O’Driscoll remains a class act and seems to get better with age. Doubts remain over Gordon D’Arcy’s fitness and his form has been disappointing but no one has taken the opportunity to usurp him. Fergus McFadden is more suited to 13 and wing, as is Andrew Trimble. Luke Fitzgerald has played at 12 but his form in his more customary back three positions has been so poor that he has been left out. Paddy Wallace remains the obvious replacement but has failed to make much of an impression on the international stage in almost 30 caps. In the back 3, plenty of game time is being given to the classy Rob Kearney to get back to match fitness following a long injury lay off. His solidity at the back and strong counter attacking game provides reassurance across the rest of the team. The ability of Tommy Bowe to sniff a gap will be a major weapon. Throw in the likes of Keith Earls, Andrew Trimble, Fergus McFadden and Geordan Murphy and this is another area where the Irish boast fine depth.
Overall
Ireland cannot do worse than four years ago and this side is more rounded than their predecessors. The ability to obtain possession may become an issue but they will compete ferociously at the breakdown. If the team can repeat the performance against England in Dublin during the 6 Nations consistently then Ireland will sail through their pool. Any injuries to front line players in the pack, however, could seriously hamper their prospects of competing at the business end of the tournament.
Prediction
A strong showing in the pool and a close match against Australia should see a likely Quarter Final against South Africa. This is eminently winnable against an ageing South African side but will see a semi-final against the All Blacks. A World Cup semi–final is not the place to be facing a side you have never beaten before. The poor build up to the tournament will have a negative impact on the mental stability of the side, but expect much more pragmatism during the pool stages.
Good read! Yeah an interesting series of warm up games to say the least! An underperforming team which looks great on paper but just hasn't delivered yet.
ReplyDeleteI think a great improvement could be on the cards in terms of performance but the Australia game could give away if the team really has what it takes, we don't have to win the Australia game, (in fact wouldn't that mean a likely matchup with the All Blacks?) but at least we'll see if we can get fired up and going.
Earls has had a disastrous few matches now, Trimble has been impressive though! Who starts at #10 for pool matches will be of interest.
I think Earls is now struggling with his versatility, in the same way as Fitzgerald has. He's clearly not comfortable defensively in the 13 channel and I would imagine that McFadden will likely cover any potential mishap that could befall BOD.
ReplyDeleteA runner up spot in the pool will see a Quarter against the winner of Pool D (likely South Africa), so the route to the semis is certainly open...