A battling win over France in this year’s 6 Nations should give the Italians a huge confidence boost going into the World Cup. With Nick Mallett moving on at the end of the tournament, he will be determined to consolidate the progress made over the last 4 years and lead Italy to their best ever World Cup showing. They will rely on the form of a few key players and once you scratch beneath the surface there isn’t quality depth to their squad outside of the front 5. Gaining physical dominance will be key to any hope of progressing in the competition.
Forwards
The traditional strength of the Italian game, but sometimes a hindrance when dominance is overplayed, the Italian forwards will dictate much of the way the side plays. The scrum will look to dominate territory and possession, although the lineout has often let the team down. In Martin Castrogiovanni, Salvatore Perugini, Andrea Lo Cicero, Leonardo Ghiraldini and Fabio Ongaro, they have front row forwards that compete with any opposition on the planet. Consistency at the set-piece will be crucial to their success. The second row boasts plenty of experience in the likes of Marco Bortolami, Carlo Del Fava and Quintin Geldenhuys but there isn’t a quality line-out operator amongst them. This could hamper their ability to compete at the top table. In the back row, they boast the world class Sergio Parisse who is arguably the finest No. 8 in the world. Throw in the experience of Mauro Bergamasco and the tireless work of Alessandro Zanni and the Italians boast a high class back row. An injury or two, however, and it may all start to unravel. The real test for the Italian pack will be to generate consistently quick ball whilst avoiding playing it tight for too many phases. They will need to get over their claustrophobia to stand any chance of progressing.
Backs
The Italians have struggled to consistently score tries through their backs and often they have seen their centres as extra back rowers. The woeful decision to pick Mauro Bergamasco at scrum half highlighted the over-reliance on power over guile. As ever, the onus on seeing and using space is place on the half backs and it is here that Italy have struggled to replace Alessandro Troncon and Diego Dominguez. At scrum half, Pablo Canovosio is a terrier but his distribution can be poor and his running game doesn’t threaten often enough. Fabio Semenzato had a strong 6 Nations and appears to have a more authoritative nature about him. This will be crucial in getting the balance right between forwards and backs.The choice at 10 between Luciano Orquera or Riccardo Bocchini is one of Hobson’s choice, really. Both are hapless at best in defence and can be erratic with the boot. If one of them hits a hot streak, however, Italy’s chances will be greatly increased. The centres will run hard all day long but amongst Gonzalo Garcia, Gonzalo Canale, Andrea Masi and Andrea Pratichetti there is not a great deal of guile. This puts further pressure on whoever gets the nod at 10. If the centres can get over the gainline often enough and get the forwards on the front foot for the second wave, Italy could be dangerous. At the back, Italy has struggled to find genuine pace and finishing ability to rival the top tier nations. Mirco Bergamasco is a fine defender and strong runner but his lack of pace was alarmingly shown up during the 6 Nations. Andrea Masi was a revelation at full back after coming in for the lackadaisical Luke McLean. He provides a unique threat from the back. Tommaso Benvenuti is raw at the top level, but could ultimately mature into a fine finisher. This tournament will prove too soon, however.
Overall
Italy will compete fiercely at the set piece and the breakdown and will secure plenty of possession. Their struggles at the lineout will hamper their ability to turn this into points, however. The lack of a regular goal kicker will be the Achilles heel and, coupled with the low try count, will see the Italians making life difficult for themselves. The reliance on Sergio Parisse is too much unless a couple of other individuals take on a bulk of the work. The lack of genuine class in the 10 shirt will make it difficult for the Italians to navigate themselves out of a competitive pool.
Prediction
Tough opponents for Australia and Ireland, but will be shown up in certain areas of the team in these games. Will face a colossal battle upfront against the Russians but they should comfortably finish third in the pool. Competitive performances against the top 2 in the pool and crushing victories against Russia and the USA should be viewed as a success.
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